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The same writer justly remarks (p. 251) that there is a converse fallacy,à dicto simpliciter ad dictum secundum quid, called by the scholastic logicians fallacia accidentis; and another which may be called à dicto secundum quid ad dictum secundum alterum quid (p. 265). For apt instances of both, I must refer the reader to Mr. De Morgans able chapter on Fallacies. Now then, Irvine said, who had the key to the desk? Then he moved slowly and with great weariness. It was difficult to force his mind back onto a logical basis. The investigation would be alarmingly simple:Yeah, there was a thin fella who hung around. Eats here every noon, or used to. Works upstairs somewhere in the building. Sure, I heardem spatting a while back, then he stopped eating here. Sure, I could identify him. In addition to the band itself, and the Gulliver family (minus Augusta, who as usual has matters to take care of in New Jersey) Annie has invited to the party some kids we knew from Ambrose Academy. There are maybe twenty to thirty people in the apartment when she announces that the band will now performFor your delectation and elucidation, she says, grinning, “a few select tunes from our recently concluded triumphant tour of the South. Pearl? she says. “Guys? He doesnt know who she means. Kirby wasnt alone when I got to the station. He had a lantern-jawed, gabled-shouldered man with him whom he introduced as Len Macintosh. He added: Len’s with the Sheriff, Connell. We work together pretty well. Yes. The phone rings. I said nothing either; it was none of my affair how Reno ran itself. My business was coming to a head and thats all I was concerned with at that time. After some ten minutes, Trenton stood up.I think Ill take him to the kennel now, if you don’t mind, he said to Dr. Dixon. “You may walk alongside of me. Just money? Trenton asked. Because he put his hand under my dress and got a hard-on. I thought that ride would never end. The old man kept leering at me all the while this fat little bastard kept prodding me from behind with his silly little prick. I think he came on the back of my panties, yes. My panties were all stickywhen I got oft that horse, that pony. I think he must have come on me. Id like to tell someone about this, Andy. I really think it’s the source of all my problems. The common and natural impression is in favor of DAlembert: the regular series would be thought much more unlikely than an irregular. But this common impression is, I apprehend, merely grounded on the fact, that scarcely any body remembers to have ever seen one of these peculiar coincidences: the reason of which is simply that no one’s experience extends to any thing like the number of trials, within which that or any other given combination of events can be expected to happen. The chance of sixes on a single throw of two dice being ¹⁄₃₆, the chance of sixes ten times in succession is 1 divided by the tenth power of 36; in other words, such a concurrence is only likely to happen once in 3,656,158,440,062,976 trials, a number which no dice-player’s experience comes up to a millionth part of. But if, instead of sixes ten times, any other given succession of ten throws had been fixed upon, it would have been exactly as unlikely that in any individual’s experience that particular succession had ever occurred; although this does notseem equally improbable, because no one would be likely to have remembered whether it had occurred or not, and because the comparison is tacitly made, not between sixes ten times and any one particular series of throws, but between all regular and all irregular successions taken together. Didyou? And then what? He started waving his hands and saying it was all a mistake. I calmed down and so did he. Finally he said: I told Lester about thinking Id seen Joey driving by. He put on his thoughtful look and said: That seems hardly logical, Shean. I mean, after all, with the police chasing him out and all. He’d hardly turn around and come back, would he? I said:Youre the doctor, mister, and got Lester on the phone. I said: “We’re going to break it tonight, kid, if we can. Now I’ve got Wendel where he’s safe but I don’t want Joey Free worrying about him and getting things screwed up. So tell Joey that Wendel’s safe in the Federal can over in Carson City. That he’s being held there and isn’t charged. And tell him that when I have Wendel turned loose I’ll have somebody stay with him all the time to make sure he’s kept safe. That I’m going to get him out tomorrow. Get it all?.